OLUR — first-half goals scanner

Top goal candidates todayTop 5 of 5 analysed · ranked by model FH O1.5 probability

Tier League

#	Fixture	Model O1.5	vs league	Betfair O1.5	Edge (best market)	Verdict
1	Thróttur Reykjavík v Grindavík Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild · 2026-06-01 19:15 UTC	47%	1.08× vs 43%	2.06 49%	—	NO_BET
2	Vasalund v Järfälla Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-03 17:30 UTC	44%	1.10× vs 40%	—	—	NO_BET
3	Arlanda v Gefle Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-01 17:30 UTC	40%	0.99× vs 40%	2.76 36%	+7.0%	NO_BET
4	Rosengard v Ängelholm Sweden — Sweden Ettan South · 2026-06-02 17:00 UTC	34%	0.96× vs 35%	1.01 99%	—	NO_BET
5	Skövde AIK v Jönköpings Södra Sweden — Sweden Ettan South · 2026-06-01 17:00 UTC	33%	0.96× vs 35%	3.25 31%	+4.9%	NO_BET

Recommended picksSubset of the ranking that cleared a verdict tier — full reasoning

Molde v Sandefjord

Norway — Norway Eliteserien · 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 █████████░ 9/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +7.5% (gross +8.6%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £400 to back @ 1.25 · lay 1.34 (£50)

Note: model saw +24.3% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +7.5% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.12	market implied 47.2%	edge +24.3%
Betfair: £0 matched · £45 to back @ 2.12 · lay 2.50 (£50)

Model86.9%

Market80.0%

League avg74.4%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 60.2% (league base rate 39.6%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.41× league avg (scored 1.13/game, n=45)
Away team FH defence away: 1.33× league avg (conceded 1.07/game, n=45)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.03 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.37)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.02 (home 1.57, away 1.45)
H2H last 5 matches: 40% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.4 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 2, 3, 0, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 2, 1, 3, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +24.3% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

KuPS v Inter Turku

Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga · 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.38 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.4% (gross +6.9%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £133 to back @ 1.38 · lay 1.53 (£53)

Note: model saw +27.2% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +5.4% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 3.00	market implied 33.3%	edge +27.2%
Betfair: £0 matched · £25 to back @ 3.00 · lay 3.60 (£50)

Model77.4%

Market72.5%

League avg75.8%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 43.9% (league base rate 36.1%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.24× league avg (scored 0.93/game, n=45)
Away team FH defence away: 0.98× league avg (conceded 0.71/game, n=45)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.49 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.27)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.26 (home 1.96, away 1.30)
H2H last 8 matches: 25% hit FH O1.5, avg 0.8 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [3, 1, 0, 1, 2]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 2, 1, 0, 2]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +27.2% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Malmö FF v Halmstad

Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan · 2026-05-30 13:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ██████░░░░ 6/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.64 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +10.0% (gross +13.6%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £32 to back @ 2.64 · lay 2.90 (£50)

Model43.0%

Market37.9%

League avg36.3%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 43.0% (league base rate 36.3%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.30× league avg (scored 0.91/game, n=44)
Away team FH defence away: 1.24× league avg (conceded 0.86/game, n=44)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.46 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.25)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.81 (home 1.64, away 1.17)
H2H last 5 matches: 60% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.0 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [3, 1, 1, 3, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [0, 0, 1, 1, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

GAIS v Kalmar

Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan · 2026-05-30 13:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ██████░░░░ 6/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.33 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +0.2% (gross +1.5%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £306 to back @ 1.33 · lay 1.47 (£49)

Note: model saw +17.5% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +0.2% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.88	market implied 34.7%	edge +17.5%
Betfair: £0 matched · £28 to back @ 2.88 · lay 3.15 (£50)

Model76.3%

Market75.2%

League avg70.0%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 42.2% (league base rate 36.3%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.19× league avg (scored 0.83/game, n=35)
Away team FH defence away: 1.26× league avg (conceded 0.90/game, n=29)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.44 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.25)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.70 (home 1.85, away 1.85)
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 1, 0, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 2, 1, 4, 1]

Risks

Small sample: home n=35, away n=29
Thin H2H history (n=2) — H2H signal less reliable
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +17.5% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

AaB v HB Køge

Denmark — Denmark 1st Division · 2026-05-30 13:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.28 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +3.5% (gross +6.5%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £39 to back @ 2.28 · lay 2.50 (£50)

Model46.7%

Market43.9%

League avg35.6%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 46.7% (league base rate 35.6%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.19× league avg (scored 0.84/game, n=31)
Away team FH defence away: 1.40× league avg (conceded 1.00/game, n=47)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.58 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.27)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.94 (home 1.52, away 1.42)
H2H last 5 matches: 40% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 2, 4, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 0, 1, 1, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

MYPA v PEPO

Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-05-29 15:30 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.20 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +4.4% (gross +5.3%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £415 to back @ 1.20 · lay 1.24 (£70)

Note: model saw +17.3% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +4.4% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 1.94	market implied 51.5%	edge +17.3%
Betfair: £0 matched · £15 to back @ 1.94 · lay 2.04 (£22)

Model87.7%

Market83.3%

League avg79.2%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 62.0% (league base rate 49.4%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.97× league avg (scored 0.92/game, n=26)
Away team FH defence away: 0.92× league avg (conceded 0.86/game, n=35)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.10 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.66)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.20 (home 1.44, away 1.76)
H2H last 5 matches: 40% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.6 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [4, 2, 1, 4, 5]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 0, 2, 1, 5]

Risks

Small sample: home n=26, away n=35
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +17.3% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Džiugas Telšiai v Panevėžys

Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga · 2026-05-30 11:15 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.92 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +10.2% (gross +14.0%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £31 to back @ 2.92 · lay 3.15 (£79)

Model39.0%

Market34.2%

League avg28.7%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 39.0% (league base rate 28.7%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.72× league avg (scored 0.37/game, n=54)
Away team FH defence away: 1.13× league avg (conceded 0.64/game, n=53)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.35 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.07)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.45 (home 1.32, away 1.13)
H2H last 10 matches: 20% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.0 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [2, 0, 0, 2, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 1, 1, 3, 0]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Täby v Skiljebo

Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-05-30 11:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.04 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.8% (gross +8.6%) Confidence: low

Betfair: £0 matched · £33 to back @ 2.04 · lay 2.44 (£16)

Model53.2%

Market49.0%

League avg40.7%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 53.2% (league base rate 40.7%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.18× league avg (scored 1.00/game, n=18)
Away team FH defence away: 1.06× league avg (conceded 0.84/game, n=38)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.78 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.44)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.72 (home 1.27, away 1.45)
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 2, 1, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 1, 4]

Risks

Small sample: home n=18, away n=38
Thin H2H history (n=2) — H2H signal less reliable
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Hammarby Talang v AFC Eskilstuna

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC

ELITE_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.2% (gross +6.2%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £45 to back @ 1.25 · lay 1.29 (£19)

Note: model saw +19.9% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +5.2% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.18	market implied 45.9%	edge +19.9%
Betfair: £0 matched · £18 to back @ 2.18 · lay 2.34 (£18)

Model85.0%

Market80.0%

League avg76.3%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 56.5% (league base rate 40.2%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.27× league avg (scored 0.98/game, n=44)
Away team FH defence away: 1.44× league avg (conceded 1.15/game, n=34)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.90 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.56 (home 2.01, away 1.55)
H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 2, 2]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 4, 4, 3]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +19.9% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Levanger v Junkeren

Norway — Norway 2. Division · 2026-05-31 14:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.23 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +6.7% (gross +7.7%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £10 to back @ 1.23 · lay 1.27 (£18)

Note: model saw +22.5% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +6.7% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.04	market implied 49.0%	edge +22.5%
Betfair: £0 matched · £11 to back @ 2.04 · lay 2.20 (£10)

Model87.6%

Market81.3%

League avg80.5%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 61.6% (league base rate 46.8%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.16× league avg (scored 1.08/game, n=26)
Away team FH defence away: 1.38× league avg (conceded 1.36/game, n=25)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.08 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.54)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.88 (home 1.43, away 1.45)
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [3, 2, 1, 2, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [2, 1, 1, 1, 4]

Risks

Small sample: home n=26, away n=25
Thin H2H history (n=1) — H2H signal less reliable
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +22.5% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Umeå v Stocksund

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-31 12:30 UTC

ELITE_FH_O15 █████████░ 9/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.21 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +4.4% (gross +5.3%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £587 to back @ 1.21 · lay 1.25 (£90)

Note: model saw +18.1% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +4.4% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.00	market implied 50.0%	edge +18.1%
Betfair: £0 matched · £34 to back @ 2.00 · lay 2.04 (£10)

Model87.0%

Market82.6%

League avg76.3%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 60.6% (league base rate 40.2%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.92× league avg (scored 0.66/game, n=29)
Away team FH defence away: 1.79× league avg (conceded 1.44/game, n=43)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.04 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.62 (home 1.28, away 1.34)
H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 3, 1, 0, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 0, 3, 2, 2]

Risks

Small sample: home n=29, away n=43
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +18.1% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Recently resolvedLast 14 days

No resolved picks in the last 14 days yet.

Performance

Performance numbers appear here as picks resolve.

Top candidates outside your leaguesTop 10 by Betfair-implied O1.5 · market price only, no model

#	Fixture	Implied O1.5	Back	Lay (£ size)	Matched £
1	Vietnam U19 v Timor Leste U19 U19 Internationals · 2026-06-01 09:00 UTC	80%	1.25	1.90 (£26)	£0
2	Indonesia U19 v Myanmar U19 U19 Internationals · 2026-06-01 13:00 UTC	71%	1.40	1000.00 (£10)	£0
3	Barra SC U20 v Nacao U20 Brazilian U20 · 2026-06-01 13:30 UTC	71%	1.40	1000.00 (£10)	£0
4	Tallinna Kalev II v Tartu Kalev Estonian Esiliiga B · 2026-06-01 16:00 UTC	60%	1.67	1.93 (£18)	£0
5	KH Hlidarendi v FC Arbaer Icelandic 3 Deild · 2026-06-01 19:15 UTC	56%	1.77	1.87 (£21)	£0

If a league keeps appearing here, consider swapping it into your FootyStats selection so we can model it properly.

League usefulness reportWhich of your 50 leagues are actually working — lifetime stats

League	Total picks	Hit %	Net ROI	Last pick
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	—	—	2026-05-30
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	1	—	—	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	2	—	—	2026-05-30
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	—	—	2026-05-30
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	1	—	—	2026-05-29
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	1	—	—	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	—	—	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	2	—	—	2026-05-31
Norway — Norway 2. Division	1	—	—	2026-05-31

Leagues with 0 picks (or sustained negative ROI) are candidates to swap out of your FootyStats selection. Top external leagues from the panel above are candidates to swap in.